The benefit of waiting for information

There is a very interesting theory about the Spanish 2004 election that occurred three days after the March 11 bombings. Conventional wisdom says that Spain voted to throw out the governing party, which was polling well, because they were scared into "appeasing" the Islamic terrorists by leaving Iraq.

There is another view however: Al Qaeda did not lead to the defeat of the Partido Popular (PP) in Spain. Soon after the bombings occurred, when it wasn't entirely clear what happened, the PP was quick to blame the Basque separatist group ETA, even after it became clear that ETA was not at fault. Why did they persist in blaming ETA? On one hand, the PP's crackdown on ETA was popular. On the other, very few Spaniards backed the Iraq War. This helped lead the PP to maintain that ETA was behind the attacks even when ETA itself denied it. The PP feared that the voters would back the anti-war PSOE because the war led to the bombings.

Instead, this rushed conclusion that ETA was behind the bombings led many voters to believe that the PP was trying to distort the truth and led many who would not have voted at all to back the PSOE. If the PP had been more honest (although some of them still believe it), they could have said something along the lines of "we are strong, we will not let the terrorists determine our foreign policy." The PP may have gotten won term as planned.

Well, it's a theory. But it's something to keep in mind. Many of us leapt to the conclusion that an Islamic group was responsible for the Norway attacks, including yours truly. To be fair, an extremist Islamic terrorist group claimed responsibility for it. As we all now know, it was actually done by a White Christian right wing extremist who seems to think that killing civilians (and the Prime Minister) will prevent Norway from becoming communist/Islamic.

This is why it is so important to wait for information first...